January platinum closed at its highest level since December 6th at $1730.90.  A move above the December 6th high of $1737.50 would present January platinum with little resistance until the $1750 level.  Reports of a sharp jump in Chinese platinum imports probably provided the market with its recent lift.  In terms of a physical commodity a weaker dollar and positive U.S. data could sustain the recent gains.

Jan platinum $1,730.90, up $9.00; Range $1,720.00-$1,735.40

Mar palladium $755.15, up $2.10; Range $751.15-$760.25

Feb gold $1,387.40, down $1.40; Range $1,385.40-$1,391.70

Mar silver $29.385, down 0.9 cents; Range $29.230-$29.485

The Treasury notes and bonds continue to slide while January platinum settled within its consolidation range between $1628 and $1733.  We have been expecting a choppy, sideways trade and for the past month we got it.  With gold looking saggy along with higher Treasury yields the choppy consolidation should continue barring a currency and debt crisis or a sudden shooting war somewhere. 

We’re on the sidelines waiting for lower prices.

Jan platinum $1,704.40, down $9.50; Range $1,690.00-$1,711.40

Mar palladium $752.65, down $15.55; Range $741.10-$763.05

Feb gold $1,386.20, down $18.10; Range $1,382.30-$1,398.00

Mar silver $29.253, down 5.35 cents; Range $28.925-$29.645

The Wall Street Journal on the implications of higher Treasury yields.

Bond Bubble Bursting

"Investors need to understand that there is now a serious danger that the events of the last month are the start of a long-term slump in Treasurys. That makes this investment environment more dangerous than many people seem to realize."

Thirty and ten year Treasury futures were each down more than a full basis point today. The downward trend is firmly established and confirmed again and again. Sooner or later higher interest rates are going to effect commodities investment including platinum, silver and gold.

January platinum couldn’t even follow gold and silver up beyond short term resistance at $1730. But it followed them down in the latter half of the session settling for the day down $8.40 at $1705.20. If the gold and silver rally peters out January platinum could be at $1660 in no time.

That’s a big if at this point although gold and silver could not maintain their record high levels today. But the platinum chart does not look encouraging for would be bulls. A bearish perfect storm for platinum would be higher yields, a stronger dollar and sagging gold prices. Right now we’re at one out of three—higher yields. Gold and especially silver still look strong and the dollar is hanging by an invisible thread. One could still buy platinum based on the strength of gold. I am waiting for a steeper correction.

Jan platinum $1,705.20, down $8.40; Range $1,698.1-$1,734.0
Mar palladium $738.70, down $12.70; Range $722.15-$775.00
Feb gold $1,409.00, down $7.10; Range $1,403.00-$1,432.50
Mar silver $29.777, up .042 cents; Range $29.575-$30.750

Gold is approaching its all time high while silver made another 30 year high.  So what’s with platinum?  January platinum settled down $14.90 on the day at $1713.60.  It hasn’t closed above the $1730 level since November 10.  Since then it has been crunch time for platinum.  Either it is going to follow gold and silver higher or higher interest rates and a stronger dollar are going to pull gold and silver down a bit.  In the mean time platinum is still the laggard of the precious metals. 

We’ll be watching the ten year and thirty year Treasuries. If the downward price trend continues there will come a tipping point vis-à-vis the precious metals.  The higher interest rates will attract investment capital out of commodities.  That’s a long term development.  For the short term the PMs are hot.  Gold is too close to an all time high to buy it. Ditto silver. Platinum is lagging though.  I am waiting for a more substantial correction but risk tolerant players could buy platinum at these levels and feel good about it.

Jan platinum $1,713.60, down $14.90; Range $1,711.40-$1,737.50

Mar palladium $751.40, down $18.70; Range $751.00-$767.05

Feb gold $1,416.10, up $9.90; Range $1,409.80-$1,422.40

Mar silver $29.705, up 46.4 cents; Range $29.495-$30.160

January platinum settled $29.10 higher today at $1713.10.  The high of the day was $1729.90, keeping the session within the projected consolidation range of $1628 to $1730.  The $1730 level could be pierced with a close any day now but the lack of enthusiasm in gold keeps me cautious.  

Yields on the long end or the Treasury curve continue to rise making the interest-less precious metals less attractive.  It may take some time for higher interest rates to make themselves felt in the commodity spectrum but Treasury prices are indeed sinking, raising rates.

Jan platinum $1,713.10, up $29.10; Range $1,682.00-$1,729.90

Mar palladium $763.70, up $31.40; Range $731.70-$773.90

Feb gold $1,389.30, up $1; Range $1,385.10-$1,399.70

Mar silver $28.572, up 15.9 cents; Range $28.330-$29.080

January platinum climbed back to it’s highest level since November 22nd to settle at 1684.00.  A nice rally on the coattails of gold and silver but still a long way from the November 9th high of $1809.80 and the April 26th high of 1760.40.  Until the April high is breached again I remain skeptical of higher platinum prices.  The next short term resistance level is $1730 with support at $1628.

Jan platinum $1,684.00, up $17.60; Range $1,658.40-$1,692.30

Mar palladium $732.30, up $29.30; Range $712.05-$738.00

Feb gold $1,388.30, up $2.20; Range $1,383.00-$1,398.30

Mar silver $28.413, up 20.1 cents; Range $28.020-$28.880

Article about gold and platinum with a chart.

Gold/Platinum Ratio

January platinum had its technical bounce to $1678.00.  Now it is set to retest the recent low at $1628.  It is very significant that it traded above the April 2010 high at $1760 for only a few sessions before fading below it again.  It means that the long term bullish prospects have been put on hold, for how long remains to be seen.

I’m expecting a bearish wave to wash over the precious metals.  It may not be too deep as far as prices go but the length of time could be considerable.  Platinum could well repeat its recent May through September L shaped consolidation.  Unless firm buying comes into gold and silver right about here and now, the bulls are checked.  Look for lower prices in a choppy trade.

Jan platinum $1,655.50, down $15.60; Range $1,649.30-$1,678.00

Dec palladium $684.70, down $19.00; Range $679.05-$715.00

Dec gold $1,357.80, up $5.50; Range $1,347.90-$1,364.80

Dec silver $27.461, up 28.2 cents; Range $27.075-$27.895

January platinum closed Tuesday afternoon trading sharply lower at $1644.90 down $40.90.  The S&P, crude oil, and a host of other commodities are sinking in tandem with copper and the precious metals.  The new development in all this is higher Treasury yields, which make the U.S. dollar more attractive.  If Treasury prices continue lower the precious metals could be in for a steeper correction than they already demonstrated. 

The momentum is down. There is no sudden wave of buying on its way in.  Even economic crises on the horizon have become routine and blasé.  The Chinese government is going to continue beating the anti-inflation drum.

The next support levels for January platinum are $1620 and $1609.

Jan platinum $1,645.70, down $40.10; Range $1,638.10-$1,679.00

Dec palladium $645.90, down $35.40; Range $636.00-$678.75

Dec gold $1,338.40, down $30.10; Range $1,329.00-$1,364.30

Dec silver $25.233, down 85.9 cents; Range $24.980-$25.850 

Dec copper $3.7275, down 19.75 cents; Range $3.6855-3.9325

 

I was looking for a technical bounce after Friday’s plunge. January platinum closed the Monday afternoon session close to the day’s low at $1675.80 down $8.80.  Get ready for a test of support at $1660 and $1640.  The value buyers had to present their case right away and they didn’t.  There will be a period of sideways to downish choppiness. The dollar looks set to rally further. Even another debt crisis in Europe may not bring the precious metals to life right away.  The bull has been wounded and needs some time to recover.

Jan platinum $1,685.80, up $1.20; Range $1,671.00-$1,697.90

Dec palladium $681.30, down $7.65; Range $664.50-$689.40

Dec gold $1,368.50, up $3; Range $1,356.50-$1,376.60

Dec silver $26.092, up 15 cents; Range $25.475-$26.480

A brisk day for commodities across the board and platinum took it on the chin as well.  World governments are taking steps to curb inflation which worries commodities players. 

January platinum settled $61.20 lower at $1684.60, piercing key support levels at $1727 and $1700.  It is ready to re-test $1660 or even $1640.  My brain is telling me to wait and see what happens but my gut is telling me to buy for a short term bounce.

A physical buyer may want to risk buying here because it is such a significant dip.  We chicken hearted, low key traders would wait a few sessions to see if the bull trend resumes or if this is the beginning of precious metals Armageddon.  I like the idea of jumping in here with a small amount.  This commodities volatility event was just a bit too “newsy”, meaning that it was a reaction to external jawboning by government rumor mills.   

Friday afternoon trading in January platinum finally closed at $1684.00 down $61.80

Jan platinum $1,684.60, down $61.20; Range $1,672.50-$1,759.90

Dec palladium $673.65, down $30.50; Range $672.00-$709.80

Dec gold $1,365.50, down $37.80; Range $1,359.30-$1,410.00

Dec silver $25.942, down $1.463; Range $25.760-$27.690

There was a severe reversal in the precious metals during the post settlement afternoon continuation, especially in silver.  The dollar came roaring back and the metal bulls faltered. January platinum closed the session at 1763.70, down $7.40 on the day after making a high of $1811.80.  The PM complex is due for a correction if the dollar rallies.  

Jan platinum $1809.60, up $38.5; Range $1746.80-$1811.80
Dec palladium $742.65, up $31.75; Range $675.10-$743.50
Dec gold $1410.10, up $6.90; Range $1403.00-$1424.30
Dec silver $28.906, up $1.474; Range $27.530-$29.340

Gold, silver and palladium are flying right out of here while platinum stalls and consolidates.  New highs all around except for platinum.  Ho hum, the same old story.  January platinum settled today at $1771.10 up $2.20, above short term support at $1751.20 and $1743.50.  

Despite today’s technical bounce the fundamentals for the dollar are still weak making the precious metals continue higher.  The next hurdle for platinum is $1800.  When the fireworks start again $1800 could be blown through like a wisp of mist.  Consolidation followed by continuation is what we expect. An opportunity to buy is presenting itself. Take it.

Jan platinum $1,771.10, up $2.20; Range $1,751.20-$1,778.80
Dec palladium $710.90, up $25.50; Range $681.60-$713.95
Dec gold $1,403.20, up $5.50; Range $1,386.60-$1,407.20
Dec silver $27.432, up 68.4 cents; Range $26.515-$27.640

January platinum settled above its April 2010 settlement high today at $1768.90.  The question remains whether yesterday’s intraday high of $1799.50 was a buying climax, commonly called a blow off top.  I don’t think so.  With gold and silver making record high settlements, copper and crude oil rallying along with the stock market, this is only the beginning of platinum’s catch up phase.  Even palladium has blown the doors off of the lagging and lame platinum market.

Until now.        

Jan platinum $1,768.90, up $13.00; Range $1,743.5-$1,786.5
Dec Palladium $685.40, up $10.65; Range $669.35-$700.20
Dec gold $1,397.7, up $14.60; Range $1,371.90-$1398.7
Dec silver $26.748, up 70.5 cents; Range $25.875-$26.915

January platinum has broken through its April 2010 high of $1760.40 on the overnight continuation.  The high of the day is $1799.50 up $102.30 at this writing.  The next resistance level is $1850.  This is the explosive move we were expecting.  I thought we had more time but it always happens this way.  Suddenly, one day, up a hundred bucks. Buy any dips, even minor ones.  

January Platinum settled $58.70 higher today at $1755.90, faithfully following December gold’s lead, which settled $45.50 higher on the day.  A sharply lower dollar and a higher stock market are adding to the upward momentum.  A break out in crude oil favors platinum’s industrial demand component.  But it is investment demand in the form of inflationary expectations that is driving these gains. 

It could take a few days to fully factor in the QE2 readings.  Positive economic data and QE2 could make inflation loom large.  If you bought platinum in the $1700 range during the recent consolation be happy.         

Jan platinum $1,755.90, up $58.70; Range $1,705.10-$1,759.20

Dec palladium $674.75, up $32.05; Range $644.30-$678.00

Dec gold $1,383.31, up $45.50; Range $1,346.70-$1,384.80

Dec silver $26.043, up $1.607; Range $24.750-$26.100

Pay attention to this one.

Copper settlements: 

Dec $3.9120; up 12.70 cents; Range $3.8125-$3.9170

Mar $3.9240; up 12.65 cents; Range $3.8255-$3.9275

With the dollar up, the stock market and gold down, January platinum put in an outside bar down on the charts today to close at $1678.10 down $25.90.  There will likely be some follow through below the October 20 low of $1660, possibly to $1610.  It depends on how deeply gold corrects more than anything.  If December gold closes below $1315.60 the next stop could be $1276.20.  That seems likely.

Jan platinum $1,678.10, down $25.90; Range $1,676.70-$1,716.30

Dec palladium $619.15, down $6.30; Range $612.85-$639.50

Dec gold $1,322.60, down $16.00; Range $1,318.60-$1,343.70

Dec silver $23.404, down 42.6 cents; Range $23.350-$24.295

Platinum continues to look over its shoulder for direction from gold, silver, equities and the dollar. The bulls need some positive fireworks in equities or a sharp slide in the dollar to forge anything more than a muted rally. Ultimately the direction of platinum will be dictated by the direction of gold.

January platinum has been holding its value fairly well the past three weeks between $1660 and $1730. I get the sense that gold still has more downside correcting to do from its all-time-high making rally. It will affect platinum; it just remains to be seen how much.

Jan platinum $1,697.00, up $21.90; Range $1,678.00-$1,710.30

Dec palladium $608.80, up $17.70; Range $589.95-$620.00

Dec gold $1,338.90, up $13.80; Range $1,329.30-$1,349.50

Dec silver $23.544, up 42.6 cents; Range $23.300-$23.855

What do we have here?  Gold and silver making record highs by the minute while platinum spins its wheels around the $1700 level.  Platinum continues to draft its direction from gold, which takes its direction from the dollar.  The long term trend in gold is up, therefore the long term trend in platinum is up.  

We are still expecting a catch up move in platinum.  Suddenly, one day, maybe after Federal Reserve quantitative easing plans go beyond just hints and become official, platinum will explode to the upside.  Wait and see.  But the waiting period would be a good time for pool buyers to get in around $1700.

Jan platinum $1,712.60, up $5.20; Range $1,701.10-$1,727.60

Dec palladium $601.55, up $7.90; Range 595.85-$605.00

Dec gold $1,377.60, up $7.10; Range $1,371.10-$1,388.10

Dec silver $24.435, up 50.3 cents; Range $23.995-$24.950

January platinum ended the week above the $1700 level in the face of what could have been a steeper correction in the precious metals. If December gold can stay above $1330 a more serious plunge can be averted. The fundamentals for platinum remain bullish. You could call this the calm after the storm. With the dollar in full cascading descent mode the precious metals are in the process of finding new valuations. Where she stops nobody knows.

Barring some unforeseen event that makes the dollar desirable again this could go on for a while. It seems that no matter what the world governments try to do it is bad for their respective economies hence good for gold, silver and platinum. The various monetary systems are too big to fix. We may have reached a point of no return.

The next stopping point for January platinum would be $1750. While this kind of entrenched bullishness can’t be reversed in a single session there very well could be a temporary setback in prices.

Jan platinum $1,708.70, up $3.70; Range $1,675.00-$1,714.10

Dec palladium $587.60, up 50 cents; Range $570.20-$593.00

Dec gold $1,345.30, up $10.30; Range $1,325.60-$1,350.80

Dec silver $23.105, up 52.1 cents; Range $22.350-$23.325

Today’s session was a rip snorter for precious metals, with new all time highs in gold and yet another 30 year high in silver. January platinum closed up $28.60 at $1700.70. It looks like $1700 is going to be the new normal for platinum just as $1500 was normal all summer. Look for consolidation at these new heights if not a continuation of the rally to the April 2010 high of $1760. A stock market rally would be icing on the cake for industrial platinum.

Jan platinum $1,700.70, up $28.60; Range $1,667.70-$1,703.60

Dec palladium $578.20, up $16.90; Range $556.10-$579.75

Dec gold $1,340.30, up $23.50; Range $1,313.30-$1,342.60

Dec silver $22.737, up 70.1 cents; Range $21.810-$22.770

Platinum had a big range up day today, which was no surprise to anyone. January platinum closed $23.50 higher at $1682.10. Gold ended the week at an all-time high. Silver closed at a 30 year high. There may me some resistance above the $1690 level. But then again there may not be. The precious metals jinni is out of the bottle and he is mighty ready for total devastation. Volatility could be a killer but longs should be rewarded.

Jan platinum $1,682.10, up $23.50; Range $1,659.00-$1,689.40

Dec palladium $574.90, up $3.65; Range $565.10-$580.00

Dec gold $1,317.80, up $8.20; Range $1,307.30-$1,322.00

Dec silver $22.06, up $2.39; Range $21.725-$22.170

Gold and silver displayed hugely significant technical bullishness on the charts today. January platinum held firm on spillover buying. What perhaps should have been a setback to the $1600 level was stopped in its tracks. If this is the best the bears can muster in terms a correction their hand is very weak. The short term resistance is still at $1650, only about $10 away from today’s close at $1640.70.

Jan platinum $1640.7 up $5.70; Range $1609.00-$1642.70

Dec palladium $560.45 up $8.25; Range $541.00-$563.75

Dec gold $1308.30 up $9.70 Range; $1276.20-$1311.80

Dec silver $21.707 up 23.60 cents; Range $21.060-$21.775

October platinum met some technical resistance at the $1640 level and closed at $1632.90. I say $1650 here we come. With gold and silver making new highs by the minute and the S&P 500 still trading above a three month consolidation, technical resistance probably won’t mean much.

Oct platinum $1,632.90, up $20.50; Range $1,621.00-$1,640.80

Dec palladium $541.90, up $11.85; Range $534.05-$547.65

Dec gold $1,292.10, up $17.80; Range $1,287.50-$1,298.00

Dec silver $21.055, up 41.5 cents; Range $20.930-$21.200

October platinum closed at $1621.80, above the June and August highs, although not decisively as it faded from the high of the day of $1630.70. The next possible stopping point is $1640. Without a market sector itching to sell it may not be long before platinum regains its 2010 high of $1760. When considering the thinness of the platinum market there may be explosive, volatile moves ahead especially if auto demand stays firm.

Oct platinum $1,621.90, up $10.00; Range $1,604.20-$1,630.70

Dec palladium $545.70, down $3.65; Range $541.60-$557.00

Dec gold $1,277.50, up $3.70; Range $1,273.00-$1,284.40

Dec silver $20.816, up 4.5 cents; Range $20.620-$21.025