Thursday, September 2, 2010

October platinum just managed to close above $1550 today after a nice run up from the August 24 low of $1491.10. I wouldn’t be surprised to see additional short covering ahead. Platinum needs favorable economic readings and positive equity prices to rally while gold seems to need economic uncertainty. Platinum is smack dab in the middle of its $1500 to $1600 range waiting for economic numbers due this Friday.


Note that it is no accident that the high of today was $1559.90, one tick below round number $1560. It means there is likely some resistance there.


We are at a turning point in both gold and platinum. They are trading at cross purposes one representing an economic safe haven and the other raw industrial demand.

Oct platinum $1,551.50, up $15.80; Range $1,531.00-$1,559.90
Dec palladium $525.25, up $5.15; Range $515.40-$526.45
Dec gold $1,253.40, up $5.30; Range $1,245.30-$1,255.20
Dec silver $19.672, up 27.9 cents; Range $19.345-$19.740

Monday, August 30, 2010

October platinum is still range bound between about $1500 and $1600. This has been going on for three months now and looks like it will continue. Everybody in the world turned bullish on gold and silver last week. The word was that gold was due for a steep correction, possibly to $1000 an ounce. Now the danger has passed, so they say.

Even though platinum is being given a lift by the gold market the fundamentals in the form of depressed auto demand are still weak. I personally will not be buying platinum just yet. Platinum prices might see flight to quality buying interest this week based on broad physical commodity fundamentals e.g. copper and crude oil. But platinum is at the bottom of the quality barrel. It is primarily a derivative play on gold.


Oct platinum $1533.10 down $3.90, Range; $1529.30-$1542.30

Dec palladium $500.10 down $4.55, Range; $499.50-$510.00

Dec gold 1239.20 up $1.30, Range; $1235.00-$1240.40

Dec silver $19.074 unch, Range; $19.020-$19.275

Friday, August 20, 2010

October platinum is once again flirting with the August 12 low of $1507. It closed today at $1513.90. The main concern is continued economic slowing. There is strong likelihood that platinum will slide below $1500 to test $1490 if equities extend even further downward. Wait, and wait some more for a buying opportunity at much lower prices.


Oct platinum $1513.90, down $13.60; Range $1508.70-$1522
Sep palladium $476.20, down $9.45; Range $473-$478.95
Dec gold $1,228.80, down $6.60; Range $1,223.60-$1,235.60
Dec silver $18.041, down 34 cents; Range $17.895-$18.395

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Platinum sent a technically bearish signal today in the form of an outside bar down on the daily chart to close at $1520.60 down $16.40. The support at $1550 didn’t hold so now the $1500 level has to hold or the bears will completely take over. The fundamentals are weak. Technical factors can’t rule the market for very long. If gold breaks down the platinum bears will have a field day or even a field month.

Patience, my friends.

Oct platinum $1,520.60, down $16.40; Range $1,514.50-$1,554.90
Sep palladium $464.70, down $5.90; Range $461.00-$482.30
Dec gold $1,199.20, up $1.20; Range $1,194.20-$1,210.20
Sep silver $17.902, down 25.6 cents; Range $17.795-$18.355


Monday, August 9, 2010

October platinum continues to slide away from the recent highs above $1600 and has now fallen back to settle today at $1542.90 down $27.90. The technical indicators point to platinum finding support just above the $1550 level but weak U.S. economic fundamentals will make a sustained rally difficult.

If gold starts consistently trending downward below $1180 we could see much lower platinum prices.


Oct platinum $1,542.90, down $27.90; Range $1,541.10-$1,578.70
Sep palladium $479.65, down $7.95; Range $476.10-$493.75
Dec gold $1,202.60, down $2.70; Range $1,201.10-$1,212.10
Sep silver $18.242, down 23 cents; Range $18.220-$18.575

Monday, August 2, 2010

October platinum has made new highs for the past two sessions to close today at $1602.20. It seems to be playing catch up with copper and equities. There has been little resistance from $1532 up to $1603. A rise to the June high of $1617 would be an overdone catch-up reaction in the face of the fundamentals facing the platinum market.

Look for platinum to trade in tight correlation to equities. If the S&P trades through its June 21 high there will probably be follow through in platinum. But at this point expectations based on corporate earnings highlight the disconnect with slow U.S. economic readings.


Oct platinum $1,602.20, up $25.40; Range $1,574.10-$1603.00
Sep palladium $515.85, up $15.85; Range $496.65-$518.60
Dec gold $1,185.40, up $1.50; Range $1,177.70-$1,193.90
Sep silver $18.419, up 41.6 cents; Range $17.975-$18.575

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Platinum and Gold by Scott Wright. Infromative and insightful.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Platinum closed at another new high for the month of July at $1576.80. There isn’t much fundamental oomph to this rally though. It seems purely technical in nature. With a tepid day in the S&P and a reassuring $14 technical bounce in gold, it’s copper that is roaring ahead of the pack with another high for it’s recent upward move.

Oct platinum $1,576.80, up $13.40; Range $1,554.00-$1,579.00
Sep palladium $500.00, up $8.80; Range $485.00-$500.95
Dec gold $1,183.90, up $12.70; Range $1,168.00-$1,185.80
Sep silver $18.003, up 38.6 cents; Range $17.530-$18.125

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Did I say the rally is over? Platinum made it’s highest close since June today at $1563.40. It seems to be feeding off of industrial demand led by copper which made it’s highest close since May 13 at $3.2900 today. The other leading markets were droopy and lackluster; the S&P down, gold holding its own but still looking for support.

Platinum has to use the $1550 level as support, not just a pivot zone, to sustain this anemic rally. Whatever happens short term platinum is still range bound between the May 21 low of $1473.00 and the June 21 high of $1617.80. Wake me when it gets to $1600.


Oct platinum $1,563.40, up $21.70; Range $1,540.70-%1,568.60
Sep palladium $491.20, up $22.45; Range $469.00-$492.75
Dec gold $1,171.20, up $8.80; Range $1,161.60-$1,172.00
Sep silver $17.617, up 17.6 cents; Range $17.480-$17.695

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

It looks like the technical downward break is finally here in the gold market with some technical follow through in platinum. After making a new high for the move platinum closed right back below it’s $1540 resistance at $1536.70. It basically means the rally is over.


Is platinum going to follow gold or the S&P? Jewelry fabricators (the gold crowd) usually can afford to stockpile while automotive catalyst demand (the S&P followers) use just-in-time pay as you go inventory systems. So there is a bit of a push-me-pull-you effect there.


Peter Duncan of Johnson Matthey says stockpiles are full while demand should continue to be strong.


"The biggest market by far for platinum jewellery is China - although demand has fallen off a bit this year - that's hardly surprising because we saw a large period of stock building in the first half of 2009 which is unlikely to be repeated. But the underlying demand in China is still very strong, and almost irrespective of price, we see that that has a long way to go before it approaches any ceiling," he says.


Johnson Matthey has a vested interest in creating the perception of a strong platinum market, meaning higher prices. So a pinch of salt is required. On the other hand they are in the business so they should know.


If gold continues to fall platinum should follow.

Oct platinum $1,536.70, down $19.10; Range $1,534.00-$1,565.90
Sep palladium $466.55, down $8.45; Range $465.90-$481.50
Aug gold $1,158.00, down $25.10; Range $1,156.90-$1,186.50
Sep silver $17.626, down 57.4 cents; Range $17.580-$18.235

Friday, July 23, 2010

With the enthusiasm shown in the stock market recently it isn’t surprising that October platinum closed above a three week consolidation zone at $1542.80. What’s surprising is that it isn’t higher. With copper closing well above $3.00 at $3.1850 a pound platinum should head for at least $1550 and possibly the June 18 high of $1617.80.

But platinum is a secondary market that has to be lead by the stock market, copper, gold and general economic sentiment. With continued Euro zone improvement we could well see higher platinum prices. Even so $1600 is still a long way off if this is the best the bulls can do alongside a sustained rally in the S&P.


Oct platinum $1,542.80, up $13.40; Range $1,525.20-$1,551.80
Sep palladium $466.75, up $9.85; Range $458.80-$470.00
Aug gold $1,187.80, down $7.80; Range $1,185.80-$1,203.90
Sep silver $18.101, down 1.9 cents; Range $18.060-$18.280

Monday, July 19, 2010

An article from the U.K. says Platinum could be a better investment than gold. I’ve been preaching that there could be the kind of buying opportunity in platinum that presents itself once every ten years or so.


Oct platinum $1,513.10, up $1.00; Range $1,499.30-$1,522.00
Sep palladium $443.90.00, down $4.70; Range $439.55-$456.70
Aug gold $1,181.90, down $6.30; Range $1,176.90-$1,194.70
Sep silver $17.543, down 24.5 cents; Range $17.440-$17.920