Friday, September 3, 2010

October platinum followed the stock market up early in today’s session and closed just above its new short term pivot point of $1560. That’s good to know but in puny markets that only trade three to four thousand lots a day these little price points and resistance levels can be blasted through like they never existed. My gut tells me there is a big surprise move in store for platinum and I think it is going to be to the upside.


While still very vulnerable to corrections following the S&P platinum isn’t going anywhere, up or down, without gold. If gold breaks out to new highs platinum has a lot of catching up to do regardless of weak auto demand and the horrible economic outlook. While historical anomalies are possible the likelihood is small that gold and platinum will delink and go their separate ways.


Palladium broke through its weekly resistance and is heading for its April 2010 highs. Silver also has nowhere to go but up. It is leading the way for the metals. The only laggard is platinum.


Barring a big volatility event platinum is a market that doesn’t know what it wants. Does it want to dance with gold or the S&P? It is like an actor playing two parts, both the boy and the girl. I think platinum will consolidate sideways for a while longer. The short covering rally should continue to $1600.

Oct platinum $1,561.10, up $9.60; Range $1,547.30-$1,566.70

Dec palladium $531.45, up $6.20; Range $522.60-$533.65

Dec gold $1,251.10, down $2.30; Range $1,239.20-$1,255.60
Dec silver $19.490, up 27.7 cents; Range $19.505-$19.975

Thursday, September 2, 2010

October platinum just managed to close above $1550 today after a nice run up from the August 24 low of $1491.10. I wouldn’t be surprised to see additional short covering ahead. Platinum needs favorable economic readings and positive equity prices to rally while gold seems to need economic uncertainty. Platinum is smack dab in the middle of its $1500 to $1600 range waiting for economic numbers due this Friday.


Note that it is no accident that the high of today was $1559.90, one tick below round number $1560. It means there is likely some resistance there.


We are at a turning point in both gold and platinum. They are trading at cross purposes one representing an economic safe haven and the other raw industrial demand.

Oct platinum $1,551.50, up $15.80; Range $1,531.00-$1,559.90
Dec palladium $525.25, up $5.15; Range $515.40-$526.45
Dec gold $1,253.40, up $5.30; Range $1,245.30-$1,255.20
Dec silver $19.672, up 27.9 cents; Range $19.345-$19.740

Monday, August 30, 2010

October platinum is still range bound between about $1500 and $1600. This has been going on for three months now and looks like it will continue. Everybody in the world turned bullish on gold and silver last week. The word was that gold was due for a steep correction, possibly to $1000 an ounce. Now the danger has passed, so they say.

Even though platinum is being given a lift by the gold market the fundamentals in the form of depressed auto demand are still weak. I personally will not be buying platinum just yet. Platinum prices might see flight to quality buying interest this week based on broad physical commodity fundamentals e.g. copper and crude oil. But platinum is at the bottom of the quality barrel. It is primarily a derivative play on gold.


Oct platinum $1533.10 down $3.90, Range; $1529.30-$1542.30

Dec palladium $500.10 down $4.55, Range; $499.50-$510.00

Dec gold 1239.20 up $1.30, Range; $1235.00-$1240.40

Dec silver $19.074 unch, Range; $19.020-$19.275

Friday, August 20, 2010

October platinum is once again flirting with the August 12 low of $1507. It closed today at $1513.90. The main concern is continued economic slowing. There is strong likelihood that platinum will slide below $1500 to test $1490 if equities extend even further downward. Wait, and wait some more for a buying opportunity at much lower prices.


Oct platinum $1513.90, down $13.60; Range $1508.70-$1522
Sep palladium $476.20, down $9.45; Range $473-$478.95
Dec gold $1,228.80, down $6.60; Range $1,223.60-$1,235.60
Dec silver $18.041, down 34 cents; Range $17.895-$18.395

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Platinum sent a technically bearish signal today in the form of an outside bar down on the daily chart to close at $1520.60 down $16.40. The support at $1550 didn’t hold so now the $1500 level has to hold or the bears will completely take over. The fundamentals are weak. Technical factors can’t rule the market for very long. If gold breaks down the platinum bears will have a field day or even a field month.

Patience, my friends.

Oct platinum $1,520.60, down $16.40; Range $1,514.50-$1,554.90
Sep palladium $464.70, down $5.90; Range $461.00-$482.30
Dec gold $1,199.20, up $1.20; Range $1,194.20-$1,210.20
Sep silver $17.902, down 25.6 cents; Range $17.795-$18.355


Monday, August 9, 2010

October platinum continues to slide away from the recent highs above $1600 and has now fallen back to settle today at $1542.90 down $27.90. The technical indicators point to platinum finding support just above the $1550 level but weak U.S. economic fundamentals will make a sustained rally difficult.

If gold starts consistently trending downward below $1180 we could see much lower platinum prices.


Oct platinum $1,542.90, down $27.90; Range $1,541.10-$1,578.70
Sep palladium $479.65, down $7.95; Range $476.10-$493.75
Dec gold $1,202.60, down $2.70; Range $1,201.10-$1,212.10
Sep silver $18.242, down 23 cents; Range $18.220-$18.575

Monday, August 2, 2010

October platinum has made new highs for the past two sessions to close today at $1602.20. It seems to be playing catch up with copper and equities. There has been little resistance from $1532 up to $1603. A rise to the June high of $1617 would be an overdone catch-up reaction in the face of the fundamentals facing the platinum market.

Look for platinum to trade in tight correlation to equities. If the S&P trades through its June 21 high there will probably be follow through in platinum. But at this point expectations based on corporate earnings highlight the disconnect with slow U.S. economic readings.


Oct platinum $1,602.20, up $25.40; Range $1,574.10-$1603.00
Sep palladium $515.85, up $15.85; Range $496.65-$518.60
Dec gold $1,185.40, up $1.50; Range $1,177.70-$1,193.90
Sep silver $18.419, up 41.6 cents; Range $17.975-$18.575